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 Spedito - 28/02/2023 : 12:28:13
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| Rough week in Week 16, and generally things have been weird over the last two weeks. So what better way to close out a strong best bets season than by dispensing with the pleasantries and getting to a HUGE slate of games that I like this week.It's important to think about motivation when it comes to picking games in Week 17 and also not to jump on anything too quickly. For instance, the were -7 a few days ago when it looked like might not play. Now that line is off the board, but it looks like the Rams could sit players and Kyler could be back. So now there's value on the potentially.On the other hand, consider the Bears-Vikings game. https://www.shopprocanadiens.com/victor-mete-kids-jersey The were +1 on Thursday afternoon, but word began leaking out on Friday of the ' plans to sit everyone in this game. The line came off the board in a bunch of spots but the Bears were -2.5 when that happened. Depending on who's out for Minnesota ( , , are early names being bandied about), it could end up with the Bears being huge favorites. Act quickly in these spots and there's an opportunity for a window of great value.If you want more insight into every single Week 17 game, check out our picks podcast with myself, R.J. White and Pete Prisco, where we give our picks and leans for every single game against the spread. -3.5 vs. This line makes no sense! The Broncos are playing for nothing, while the Raiders are trying to hit the first leg of a four-game parlay to make the playoffs. Oakland, Indy, Baltimore and Houston all have to win and the Raiders are in. After to sing around some ideas, it finally hit me: the game is being played in Denver. Do you know what the weather's like in Denver in December? It's cold as hell. Do you know who doesn't like playing in cold weather? . His old coach told us as much recently, and the stats back it up. Since 2016, the Raiders have played in three games where the temperature was le s than 40 degrees. In those games, Carr has gone 52 for 100 for 456 yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions. The Raiders are 0-3 straight up and 1-2 against the spread in those game. The high is 37 on Denver in Sunday. The Raiders are also likely going to be mi sing (why play him??) and is out for the season. Their defense has been struggling in recent weeks https://www.shopprocanadiens.com/dominic-moore-men-jersey and the Broncos have a little something cooking on offense with , and Philip Lindsay.Broncos-Raiders under 41See: above, re: Carr's performance. The Raiders have scored a total of 32 points in their three games when the temperature is below 40 degrees. They will be mi sing multiple offensive starters. Add in the Broncos defense playing pretty well -- no one's scored more than 27 points on them since their Week 10 bye -- and I don't think we see Oakland chunking the ball all over the field. Denver doesn't technically have anything to play for, but they'll be interested in me sing up a rival's playoff hopes and also trying to finish the season on a high note with some young offensive talent playing well. This isn't a team that will keep throwing if they get up early; Denver will lean on Lindsay and and melt the https://www.shopprocanadiens.com/joel-armia-kids-jersey clock. Again, it will be cold, and it could also be windy with wind gusts around 14 mph currently projected. I think this number could drop under 40 so I would get it before Sunday. -3.5 at Bill O'Brien says he will play his starters and play to win this game. I don't believe him. Well, I believe him, but I think he's hedging his bets a little bit. The only reason the game matters to the Texans is if lose on Sunday to the . That could happen, but Vegas obviously doesn't think it's the case, with Kansas City sitting as an 8.5-point favorite. O'Brien can't tell his guys this game doesn't matter and have them not prepare only to watch the Chiefs lose and the Texans not be ready to grab the No. 3 seed. So he's doing the smart thing, acting as if this game definitely matters and then having the freedom to a) make https://www.shopprocanadiens.com/nate-thompson-women-jersey guys inactive or b) simply yank out his starters after the first quarter/a couple of drives/halftime. Either way, the Texans can't po sibly think playing for a full, meaningle s Week 17 game is a smart move after seeing him limp around against the Bucs last week. If the Chiefs win, and I think they will, then you're going to see Houston bail on players. Buy the Titans now before the line creeps back up. Depending on what happens with KC, I think it ends up closing -5 or -7 before kick. +11 at This is just too many points. Washington is on a three-game losing streak, but they've lost those games by a combined 21 points, including six of which came on a *not-so-meaningle s* last-second touchdown from the . The Redskins should https://www.shopprocanadiens.com/patrick-roy-women-jersey be on an ATS heater right now if Philly hadn't screwed it up. They secretly could be on a five-game winning streak if things broke their way. has actually played some good football over the course of 2019 and having Terry McLaurin/Steven Sims as weapons should allow him to exploit a questionable Cowboys defense. Washington's defense has been bad over the last two weeks, but some of the points scored against them were in garbage time or overtime. They still like to control clock/run the ball. If they can get a turnover or two here, or if shoulder still isn't right, Washington can win this game outright. I'll happily take the double digits. Chiefs -8.5 vs. ChargersSomeone explain to me how the Chargers get off the mat for this game after being embarra sed last week "at home" by the Raiders. The Chiefs have everything to play for here: if they win and the lose, Kansas City is the No. 2 seed and gets a bye in the first round of the playoffs. A Pats lo s is unlikely, but the Chiefs also need to win to stay ahead of the Texans, so I expect a full effort from KC here. They've been playing good football and would likely want to roll it into the playoffs with a strong performance in Week 17. Don't expect them to pile on the points, but we've seen them really lock teams down, giving up just 31 points the last four weeks. The Chiefs are going to win this game by double digits, mainly because the Chargers seem pretty checked out on the season. offers some significant backdoor cover potential, but he could also help the Chiefs steal a cover with a pick six, which would not be out of character whatsoever.Chiefs-Chargers under 45The Chiefs have hit on four straight unders out of their Week 12 bye, again thanks in large part to the way the defense is playing. KC is giving up one full yard per play le s on defense over the last four weeks than they did for https://www.shopprocanadiens.com/artturi-lehkonen-women-jersey the first 11 weeks of the season. This defense is GOOD, people. The Chargers are one of the slowest teams in football, checking in at fourth in terms of time of po se sion per drive. The Chiefs are sixth. These teams are both slow and methodical. Bonus, it's going to be cold (40 degrees or le s) and fairly windy (10-12 mph winds throughout the game). The Chargers are 1-4 against the spread since 2015 in games below 40 degrees (see: above) and the under is 3-2 in those games. The over h |
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NFL Week 17 Picks Against the Spread Tit
