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Risoluzione schermo: 640 x 480 800 x 600 1024 x 768 1280 x 1024 Nome utente: Password: Formato: Basic  Help  Richiesta  Formato: Tipo di Carattere Andale Mono Arial Arial Black Book Antiqua Century Gothic Comic Sans MS Courier New Georgia Impact Lucida Console Script MT Bold Stencil Tahoma Times New Roman Trebuchet MS Verdana   Dimensione del Carattere 1 2 3 4 5 6   Colore del Carattere Nero Rosso Giallo Rosa Verde Arancione Viola Blu Beige Marrone Verde Bosco Blu scuro Marrone scuro Verde chiaro Messaggio: HTML non è attivo Il codice su forum è attivo Faccine [quote][i]Originariamente inviato da seestyle[/i] [br]The regular season comes to a close this week, and just like every year, bettors have to wade through motivational questions with many of the matchups in Week 17. If these games were played on any other week of the season, some of these lines would be not just a few points different, but even a touchdown or more. Each week, I break down what you need to know about each game from a betting angle before you lock in your picks. I'll talk about big line moves, teasers and parlays to consider and more. But with the motivation angle to think about in each game, I'm not sure it does any good to tell you which lines DVOA disagrees with, or what the biggest line moves are when they're tied solely to motivational circumstances changing. So instead let's go game by game and try and figure out where we can get an advantage. If you want to know which sides I https://www.metsgearsny.com/new-york-mets-jersey/jeff-mcnei-jersey like, you can find that info at the SportsLine link below, where all my rated plays appear during the season along with my five SuperContest picks each week and plenty of great analysis from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check out where all our CBS Sports staff lands on . My picks Over at SportsLine, I'll be . Join now and and you can get mine and every SportsLine expert's picks throughout the year, as well as my SuperContest picks each Saturday. (-3.5) at Motivation:Positive for Titans, potentially negative for Texans. The Titans are obviously going all out, as they make the playoffs with a win. Texans coach Bill O'Brien says he won't be resting players, but can we believe him? The Texans will https://www.metsgearsny.com/new-york-mets-jersey/yoenis-cespedes-jersey know when they kick off whether they can jump to the No. 3 seed, which will be in play if the lose. But if the Chiefs win as expected, we can't expect and other key players to see action for the entire game. If both teams were equally motivated, you'd figure the Texans would be three-point favorites or more, so the market is not buying O'Brien's claim. Other factors:The lookahead line was Texans -1, which is basically staking the middle ground between equal motivation and no motivation. DVOA thinks the Titans are the much better team, and my metric accounting for weighted DVOA projects this line at Titans -2.5 if both teams were going all-out. Unle s you think the Chiefs are going to lose, the Titans look like a great value. If you can get a moneyline parlay on and Texans at plus odds, that has a huge correlation as a Chargers win over the Chiefs would presumably swing the Texans to being favored in this game. As of Wednesday, that parlay would pay around +950. (-3) at Motivation:Neutral for both teams. If anything, the Bengals might have a slight motivational edge, as a win does nothing for their draft status and the Browns seem to be dealing with turmoil week in and week out with players reportedly unhappy. Other factors:The lookahead line was Browns -3, but the edge in https://www.metsgearsny.com/new-york-mets-jersey/brandon-nimmo-jersey this game comes again in weighted DVOA, which doesn't see too much difference between these teams. The metric would make Browns -1 on a neutral field, so in Cincinnati you would expect the Bengals to be favored, likely by only one point since they don't have a great home-field advantage. Despite that, the Browns are getting 80% of the tickets, so score another point for the Bengals via our fading the public strategy. at (-1) Motivation:Positive for Bears, negative for Vikings. Though Minnesota is locked into the No. 6 seed, Mike Zimmer indicated on Tuesday that he hasn't decided whether to rest key players. But because it makes sense to do so, the market has priced it into the line, as the lookahead was Vikings -7. But why would the Bears have positive motivation https://www.metsgearsny.com/new-york-mets-jersey/noah-syndergaard-jersey ? Getting a win would make them 8-8 as opposed to 7-9, and avoiding the losing season should be something to get up for after this team fell short of expectations. Matt Nagy seemed to be considering resting some players early in the week, but with nothing but the offseason ahead, I don't expect to see much of it from the Bears. Other factors:The Bears defense has absolutely shut down the Vikings since the start of 2018, giving up just 222 yards and six points in the early matchup this year after holding Minnesota to 164 yards and 10 points in the season finale last year as well as 268 yards and 20 points in their first meeting of 2018, though all but three of those points in that first game came in the fourth quarter. The Vikings are a super public team in the early going, getting 82% of the tickets. (-3.5) at Motivation:Positive for Colts, neutral to negative for Jaguars. Technically the motivation factor is neutral for the Jags, but anyone that has watched this team in the second half has failed to see any signs of motivation in general. So if the Jaguars play to form, we shouldn't expect much life from them. The Colts should have some motivation to finish 8-8 and avoid a losing record, which would say something about a team that dealt with a lot of injuries during the season after watching its quarterback retire a few weeks before the start of the season. Other factors:The Jaguars were one-point favorites on the lookahead line, so this line has swung 4.5 points after the Colts dominated a similarly awful team in the last week. The Jaguars haven't reach 300 yards on offense since November, and their defense has allowed 500-plus yards https://www.metsgearsny.com/new-york-mets-jersey/zack-wheeler-jersey in two of their last three. Weighted DVOA thinks this line is underselling the difference between these two teams, projecting the line to be about Colts -6.5. at (PK) Motivation:Neutral for Falcons, neutral for Bucs. The Falcons have been playing hard over the second half of the season, and we should expect them to keep doing so and close out on a four-game win streak. The https://www.metsgearsny.com/new-york-mets-jersey/pete-alonso-jersey Bucs should also play hard to get to 8-8 in Bruce Arians' first year. I don't think we have an edge either way. Other factors:This line is saying the Falcons are clearly the better team, and the margin is enough to cover the Bucs' homefield advantage. But my power ratings have the Bucs as the better team on a neutral field, as aside from turnovers (which have been a major i sue) they've been dominating teams statistically, including a 435-229 yardage edge in the lo s to the Texans last week that ended their own four-game win streak. Weighted DVOA also has the Bucs as the clearly better team and projects a line of Bucs -6.5, which isn't quite enough to cover a pick-six by and subsequent extra point. at (-11) Motivation:Neutral for Redskins, positive for Cowboys. While a lo s would lock Washington into the No. 2 pick, I'm not sure that's a major factor for a coaching staff that won't be around next year anyway. The Cowboys are obviously at max motivation needing a win and an lo s to get into the playoffs. Other factors: injury clearly looke [/quote]   Seleziona qui per inserire la tua firma.